Monday, 15 September 2008

Estimated Sea Level Rise by 2100: 0.8 Metres 'More Plausible'

A paper published in Science magazine on 5th September 2008 set a limit of 2 metres for sea level rise from ice melt in Greenland and western Antarctica. The paper by W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O'Neel is entitled: 'Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise.'

The Abstract states:

On the basis of climate modeling and analogies with past conditions, the potential for multimeter increases in sea level by the end of the 21st century has been proposed. We consider glaciological conditions required for large sea-level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter. These roughly constrained scenarios provide a "most likely" starting point for refinements in sea-level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics.

Contrast this with Al Gore's claim in his 2006 documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth' that sea levels would rise by 20 feet (6 metres) and The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projection of a rise of no more than 0.6 metres by 2099 in its 2007 report.

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